Depending on the value of θ we can get more/less information per experiment, based on the derivatives of sin2(θ) and cos2(θ). Since the underlying value of θ is uniform on the interval [0,2π], we can attempt to maximise the information obtained by applying different phase shifts before applying the σXMeasurement. As such, we will consider our observations to be the set {(ai,θi):ai∈{↑,↓},θi∈R}, obtained with the underlying probabilities
{P[↑∣θ,θi]=sin2(θ+θi)P[↓∣θ,θi]=cos2(θ+θi)
Our goal is to find the most likely θ given our observations.
Solution
We will apply the Maximum Likelihood Estimation framework. Up to a me, the probability of our observations equals L:=∏i,ai=↑sin2(θ+θi)∏i,ai=↓cos2(θ+θi) . Since log is Monotonic, θargmax{L}=θargmax{log(L)}, allowing us to simplify the latter expression:
0=∂θ∂log(L)=∂θ∂[∑i,ai=↑log(sin2(θ+θi))+∑i,ai=↓log(cos2(θ+θi))]=∑i,ai=↑∂θ∂[log(sin2(θ+θi))]+∑i,ai=↓∂θ∂[log(cos2(θ+θi))]=∑i,ai=↑2sin−2(θ+θi)sin(θ+θi)cos(θ+θi)−∑i,ai=↓2cos−2(θ+θi)sin(θ+θi)cos(θ+θi)=∑i,ai=↑arctan(θ+θi)−∑i,ai=↓tan(θ+θi)Using the linearity of ∂θ∂By the chain ruleRemoving 2 as it does not impact the final result
While finding the closed formula solution for the equation above might not be possible, finding the roots can be done relatively quickly via the Newton-Raphson method.
IX(θ)=E[(∂θ∂log(fθ(X))2∣θ]=E[(∑i,ai=↑arctan(θ+θi)−∑i,ai=↓tan(θ+θi))2∣θ]=2−N∑α(∑i,ai=↑arctan(θ+θi)−∑i,ai=↓tan(θ+θi))2=2−N∑α(∑iNtan(θ+θi)(−1)1{αi=↓})2=2−N∑α(∑iNtan(θ+θi)(−1)1{αi=↓})(∑jNtan(θ+θj)(−1)1{αj=↓})=2−N∑α∑i,j∈{1...N}2tan(θ+θi)(−1)1{αi=↓}tan(θ+θj)(−1)1{αj=↓}=2−N∑i,j∈{1...N}2∑αtan(θ+θi)(−1)1{αi=↓}tan(θ+θj)(−1)1{αj=↓}=2−N∑i,j∈{1...N}2∑αtan(θ+θi)tan(θ+θj)(−1)1{αj=αi}=2−N∑i=1N∑αtan(θ+θi)2=2−N∑i=1N2Ntan(θ+θi)2=∑i=1Ntan(θ+θi)2Since ∂θ∂logfθ(x)=∂θ∂logL, with L as aboveTaking the expectation over the 2N possible outcomes, with α∈{↑,↓}NRearranging into a single sum Splitting the i sum as 2 sumsPulling the sums outAs (−1)1{αi=↓}(−1)1{αj=↓}=(−1)1{αi=αj}The i=j terms cancel out 🎉Since there are 2N possible configurations for α